Source: cleanenergynews.ihsmarkit.com
Global solar PV installations will see double-digit growth in 2021 and 20 percent growth or more in 2022 and surpass the 200 GWdc barrier for the first time, according to a new report by the Toza energiya texnologiyasi service at IHS Markit.
2022 yilda jami investitsiyalar kamida 170 mlrd.
Until recently, declining PV system costs—which decreased by more than 50 percent on global average from 2013 to 2020—have been a crucial factor in the exponential growth of the industry, with global installed capacity increasing 275 percent during that time. However, IHS Markit found that PV systems costs have increased by 4 percent from 2020 to 2021, bringing new challenges to the burgeoning market.
IHS Markit calculates the range of current pricing for utility{{0}}scale PV systems at 0.55/Wdc to 0.97/Wdc, "though that is dependent on a variety of factors, including location and type of companies involved," said Josefin Berg, research manager, clean energy technology at IHS Markit. "But as IHS Markit data shows, this range is higher than it was a year ago."
Using data from the AQSh Milliy qayta tiklanadigan energiya laboratoriyasi2010-yilda kommunal xizmatlar{0}}quyosh PV narxi taxminan 4,75/Wdc ni tashkil etdi va NREL so‘nggi o‘n yillikdagi pasayishlar asosan PV modullarining samaradorligi hamda apparat va inverter xarajatlarining pastligi bilan bog‘liq.
Kengayish
Xitoy, Hindiston, AQSH va Yevropa kabi asosiy bozorlardagi oʻrnatishlar 2021 va 2022-yillarda kengayishni taʼminlamoqda, eng yuqori oʻsish esa Xitoy boshchiligidagi taqsimlangan avlod segmentiga toʻgʻri keladi.
IHS Markit yil davomida quyosh PV qurilmalari ikki-raqamli o‘sishni kutmoqda, lekin bu yo‘lda yangi sektor yetakchilik qilmoqda.
"The utility segment has been the most affected in 2021, with multiple projects delayed or canceled. By contrast, the strong growth of the distributed generation i.e., residential, commercial, and industrial, sector has been one of the success stories of solar PV in 2021," said Berg. "It has been boosted by the fuel crisis and surging electricity prices, particularly in markets across Europe."
2022 yilgacha yuqori narxlar
O'tgan yil davomida ko'plab sohalarda global logistika va ta'minot zanjiri uzilishlari quyosh PV materiallari narxini yangi yuqori darajalarga ko'tardi. Bundan tashqari, 2021-yilning ikkinchi yarmida materik Xitoyda joriy etilgan quvvat cheklovlari tufayli ayrim provinsiyalarda PV{1}}bilan bog‘liq ishlab chiqarishni keskin cheklab qo‘ydi, metall kremniy, polisilikon va quyosh oynasi kabi asosiy materiallarni yetkazib berishni qisqartirdi.
From October 2020 to October 2021, IHS Markit has found that the price of polysilicon has grown over 200 percent alongside major price increases in other module materials such as solar glass and copper—forcing module manufacturers to increase their prices. IHS Markit estimates that, since August 2021, average module production costs have increased above 15 percent , and module prices are now back to 2019 levels.
Invertorlar va trekerlar kabi boshqa quyosh PV komponentlariga ham ba'zi materiallarning (shu jumladan yarimo'tkazgich komponentlari) etishmasligi va po'lat kabi xom ashyoning yuqori narxi ta'sir ko'rsatmoqda. IHS Markit yuk tashishning hozirgi yuqori xarajatlari va keyingi yuk tashish kechikishlari 2022 yilgacha davom etishini kutmoqda.
"There is significant appetite across global markets to invest in and develop solar installations, but the supply chain is just not ready to meet this level of demand; it needs time to adjust. We have seen this most clearly in the polysilicon market, which will continue to be a bottleneck for solar PV growth into 2022, until planned new capacity is ramped up from 2023 onwards," said Edurne Zoco, executive director, clean energy technology at IHS Markit.
IHS Markit 2023-yilga yetib boruvchi ishlab chiqarish quvvatiga qo‘shimcha ravishda, passivlashtirilgan kontaktli hujayralar va hetero-birikma kabi rivojlanayotgan texnologiyalardan samaradorlikni oshirish ham 2023-yildan boshlab ishlab chiqarish xarajatlarini -boshiga bir dollarga{{3} kamaytirishga hissa qo‘shishini taxmin qilmoqda. }Vatt asosida.
Siyosat noaniqligi
Biroq, 2022 yilgi prognoz uchun yovvoyi karta asosiy quyosh PV bozorlaridagi siyosat noaniqligidir.
Ushbu muammolarni hal qilish ishlab chiqarish quvvatlari va bozorni o'rnatish tezligiga katta ta'sir ko'rsatadi, dedi Zoco. Xitoyda joriy quvvat cheklovlarining uzunligi va intensivligi quyosh PV ishlab chiqarish sur'atlarini va uning eksport salohiyatini aniqlaydi. Agar joriy yuqori xarajatlar davom etsa va investitsiya solig'i krediti uzaytirilmasa, AQShda yangi o'rnatishlarning 20 foizi yo'qolishi mumkin.
"Despite the two-year impasse in solar PV cost decline, solar continues to be one of the energy technologies with the lowest capex and is the fastest energy source to install," Zoco said. "Over 1,000 GWdc of new solar installations are expected to be installed globally through 2025, driven by solar technology competitiveness, versatility, and installation speed, that will be instrumental to contribute to the decarbonization of the power system this decade."
