Source: ihsmarkit.com
The prospects for solar photovoltaic (PV) generation capacity additions in Latin America are set to improve in 2022, but that doesn't mean to say there aren't hurdles in the way.
In addition, financing the projects as the region battles its way back from a COVID-19 pandemic that disproportionately devastated Latin America's populace and economies will tax the wherewithal and resilience of governments, although green, social, and sustainable bonds could offer one solution.
Endi IHS Markit 2022 yilda Lotin Amerikasi bo‘ylab 16,5 GVt quvvatga ega bo‘lishini kutmoqda, bu ko‘rsatkich uch oy oldingi prognozdagi 15,9 GVtga teng edi. Buning 9,7 GVt i quyosh energiyasi boʻyicha mintaqaviy yetakchi{7}}Braziliyada onlayn boʻladi, dedi IHS Markit tadqiqot tahlilchisi Anxel Antonio Kansino, bu yerda taqsimlangan fotovoltaik qurilmalarning bumi qitʼa prognozini oshirishda katta rol oʻynadi. bir butun sifatida.
2021-yilda Braziliya banner yiliga ega bo‘ldi, taqsimlangan ishlab chiqarish sektori qo‘shimchalari 5 GVt dan oshdi va kommunal{2}}o‘rnatishlar 2 GVt dan oshdi. Kanchinoning aytishicha, 2022 yil ham xuddi shu yo'lda davom etishi kutilmoqda.
The growth prospects across the region defy the cost challenges currently wreaking havoc on butun dunyo bo'ylab quyosh ta'minot zanjirlari, dedi Cancino, modullar, yuk tashish va po'lat, mis va shisha kabi xom ashyo narxining oshishiga e'tibor qaratdi.
IHS Markit ijrochi direktori Edurne Zokoning so'zlariga ko'ra, ushbu ta'minot zanjiri muammolari 2022 yilda global miqyosda davom etadi. It was a perfect storm in 2021, with record demand, price increases, power cuts, and tariffs all contributing to major bottlenecks, she said during a so'nggi vebinar. 2022 yilda etkazib berish liniyalari juda qattiq bo'lib qoladi, ammo ba'zi xarajatlar, shu jumladan polisilikon ham kamayadi, deya qo'shimcha qildi u.
Latin America's PV opportunities are gaining notice in the wider solar sector. Global Solar Council (GSC) Chairman Jose Donoso said 15 December he was optimistic about the prospects for solar in Latin America, particularly given the increasing number of power purchase agreements being signed.
Mintaqadagi keyingi o'sish darajasini qo'llab-quvvatlash uchun Donoso GSC vebinarida investorlar hukumatlarning maqsadlari va tartibga soluvchi aniqlik kerakligini aytdi.
Braziliyadan tashqari
Braziliya Lotin Amerikasidagi quyosh sektorida sur'atni o'rnatayotgan bir paytda, butun qit'aning boshqa joylarida imkoniyatlar ko'p, deydi bozor ishtirokchilari.
2022-yilda Chili 2,6 GVt quvvatga ega yangi PV quvvatini ko‘rishi kutilmoqda, dedi Kansino. Chilida kech{3}}bosqichli loyihalar katta quvur liniyasi mavjud va yangi loyihalar PMGD qisqartmasi bilan mashhur boʻlgan yirik-kommunal korxonalar va kichik hajmdagi taqsimlangan loyihalar uchun ruxsat berish navbatiga qoʻshilishda davom etmoqda. 9 MVt dan kam.
However, modernization of the Chilean distribution grid should be near the top of the agenda, said Chilean Association of Solar Energy (ACESOL) Vice President David Rau, for the country to take advantage of the world's highest solar irradiation and replace hydroelectric capacity that is dwindling rapidly as a result of climate change.
Across Chile's northern border in southern Peru, there are similar solar opportunities, said Peruvian Renewable Energy Association Executive Director Paloma Sarria, but a grid revamp is needed there, too, because the majority of the country's generation capacity is in the center of the country.
Peru quyosh energiyasidan foydalangan holda energiya eksportchisi, shuningdek, metall va minerallar eksportchisi bo'lish imkoniyatiga ega, dedi Sarria. Peru 25 GVtgacha quyosh quvvatini qurishi mumkin, dedi u.
Sarria said the absence of government auctions since 2015 due to an excess of supply at the time had hampered solar buildout. Even without a grid revamp, 2.1 GW of solar capacity could be added in the next few years in Peru, she said. In addition, he said, "if we want to get to our net-zero targets, we really need to think about the transmission grid" and the help it needs.
Brazil's great rival Argentina, meanwhile, was fourth in the regional capacity table at the end of 2020, according to Rodrigo Sauaia, GSC regional task force coordinator, who is also the CEO of the Brazilian Solar Photovoltaic Energy Association (ABSOLAR)
Argentina has fallen further behind after Brazil's banner year, but local hopes are high that things can be turned around despite financial challenges and project delays. Argentina has a major opportunity for a substantial buildout of its solar capacity, said Marcelo Álvarez, president of Cámara Argentina de Energia Renovables (CADER).
Brazil's economy, the largest in South America, is four to five times bigger than Argentina's, but its solar sector is many multiples bigger still, he said, with the gaping chasm between the two at the moment indicating the massive unfulfilled potential in Argentina—which has the world's eighth-largest land mass.
To start fulfilling the opportunity presented, said Álvarez, Argentina must offer bigger and better incentives and standardized nationwide tariffs and subsidies.
The country's embattled economy—bedeviled by inflation and rising unemployment—needs the additional jobs the sector can offer. And aside from panels and inverters, Argentinian companies can provide almost all of the rest of the parts required, he said, offering a boost to individual communities and the country as a whole. With Argentina's goal of 20 percent of electricity from renewable sources by 2025, some 10 GW of opportunity is waiting for developers, he said.
Pandemiya jarohati
Argentina wasn't the only country in the region where the economy and political classes are feeling the strain. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Latin America was disproportionate, UN Development Programme Regional Director for Latin American and the Caribbean Luis Felipe López Calva said 16 December, with 18 percent of cases and 29 percent of the COVID-19-related deaths seen in a region that only accounts for 9 percent of the global population.
Latin America's recovery from the pandemic has been slowed by structural deficiencies, and around 50 percent of households across the region have yet to return to their pre-pandemic income levels. As a result, the amount and intensity of protests and social discontent has increased since the pandemic started, López Calva said during a Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP) webinar.
Lotin Amerikasi davlatlari bu inqirozdan keyin qashshoqroq bo'ldi, dedi iqtisodchi va natijada fiskal o'zgarishlar uchun joy cheklangan va soliq islohoti uchun minimal imkoniyat mavjud. Bir yechim investitsiyalarni moliyalashtirishning yangi usullarini, jumladan barqaror obligatsiyalarni topish bo'lishi mumkin, dedi u. Mulk solig'ini isloh qilish ham yordam berishi va muvaffaqiyatga erishish imkoniyatiga ega bo'lishi mumkin, ammo faqat boylardan olinadigan soliqlar muvaffaqiyatsiz bo'ladi, deya qo'shimcha qildi u.
Former Colombian finance minister Mauricio Cárdenas, who was also on the 16 December call, said every country in Latin America is trying to avoid imposing tax increases, and all are looking into new forms of financing even though many nations across the region already have high levels of sovereign debt relative to countries in Africa for instance.
Engagement on the energy transition can help tackle the civil unrest flaring up across region, restoring trust that has disappeared in a number of countries, Cárdenas said yilning boshida.
Speaking at the 2021 Kolumbiya global energiya sammiti (CGES), Cárdenas said climate change and the energy transition can be part of the solution to the unrest. The transition can be a tool no matter the political leanings of a government, he added.
Where the money to build the renewable capacity comes from is a big question. As Cárdenas pointed out during the CGEP webinar, regional governments are strapped for cash, and there is little room for fiscal maneuvering.
A proposed fuel tax hike in Cárdenas' homeland led to widespread protests earlier in 2021 and they were withdrawn as a result of the discord.
Yashil, ijtimoiy, barqaror aloqalar
Ekvadorning Barqaror moliya tashabbusi direktori Daniel Visente Ortega Pachekoning aytishicha, global pandemiya mintaqaviy suveren qarzning keskin o'sishiga yordam beradi, bu 2019 yilda YaIMning 58 foizidan 2023 yilda 76 foizga ko'tarilishi kutilmoqda.
Kapital bozorlarida qarz olish energiya almashinuvi bilan birga ishlashi mumkin, ammo Chili mintaqada buni amalga oshirish uchun navbatda oldinda.
As market participants discussed the options for green, social and sustainable (GSS) bonds in the region during a 7 December event, a Chilean government official casually told his fellow panelists that the ministry he represented had berilgan sana the equivalent of 1.3 billion in Chilean pesos in a social bond not 30 minutes earlier.
The official, Patricio Sepulveda, head of the Chilean Ministry of Finance's public debt office, said thematic bonds like the 1.3 billion social bond have expanded the country's investor base. Among the social projects financed in recent months by the Chilean government are COVID-19 pandemic-linked support for housing and the labor market plus essential services, said Sepulveda.
Chile's GSS debt was equal to 23 percent of its overall outstanding government debt, Sepulveda told an October International Capital Markets Association (ICMA) briefing. At that point, the country had issued 14.6 billion in social bonds, 7.6 billion in green bonds, and 1.5 billion in sustainability-linked bonds in 2021. The December tranche lifted its GSS borrowing for the year above 27 billion, he said during the 7 December event.
Scotiabank barqaror moliya direktori Daniel Gracian o'sha 7 dekabrdagi ICMA tadbirida 2021 yilda Lotin Amerikasidagi birinchi telekommunikatsiya emitenti va atrof-muhit, ijtimoiy va boshqaruv (ESG) fondlaridan ko'proq qiziqish uyg'otgan holda, barqaror obligatsiyalar bozorida dengiz o'zgarishi kuzatildi.
Inter{0}}Amerika Taraqqiyot Banki katta moliyaviy mutaxassisi Izabel Brali-Kartilye ICMA tadbiri ishtirokchilariga bergan intervyusida, Andean GSS bozorida o'sish uchun juda ko'p imkoniyatlar mavjud, ba'zi barqaror segmentlar, masalan, suv bokira hududi. Suveren emitentlar qarz bozorlarida yetakchilik qilsa, mahalliy bozorlar e'tibor beradi va kuzatib boradi, dedi u. Braly-Kartilyening so‘zlariga ko‘ra, kichikroq bitimlar hajmi ortib bormoqda va bunday o‘sish barqaror.
Gracian emissiya va boshqa atrof-muhit omillari bilan bog‘liq asosiy samaradorlik ko‘rsatkichlarini (KPI) joriy etish, ayniqsa, Parij kelishuvi bilan bog‘liq{0}}2050 yilga mo‘ljallangan aniq{1}}nol maqsadlar ko‘proq e’tiborga olinsa, ijobiy ish bo‘lishini aytdi. Bular katta qarzdor suveren emitentlarga yordam berishi mumkin.
"KPIs should be telling the story the issuer wants to tell the market," he said, be it diversity or governance for instance, adding that KPIs for sustainability linked bonds (SLBs) should be an extension of the underlying ESG strategies of the issuer. "Investors will dig deep, they will look beyond the framework, and they want to see that the story the issuer is telling is aligned across the board," he said.
But GSS bonds need the appropriate institutions to be in place if they are to work, López Calva said. Spending the proceeds of the social and sustainability-linked bonds on environmental issues needs the right institutions, protections, transparency, and guidelines to succeed, and he said "we cannot just expect this to happen."
